译文/Translated：
本文我想回答理想的加密货币应该有怎样的属性？这些属性应该和加密货币尝试解决的问题分开。过去十年来，我们有机会见证大量科技尝试解决货币的问题。但有一个事情很明显：最好的技术也不能和最好的网络效应竞争，最好的技术也不能自动构成网络效应。
所以，比特币和以太坊的先驱优势让它们的网络效应大大超过其技术缺陷：技术上，它们的设计原始、性能低下。而它们却能自我实现逐利和流动性，从而加强了其网络效应。人们会利用比特别是因为它越来越受欢迎，“其他人都在做，”而不是因为它“更好”，甚至不是因为它能真正解决一开始想解决的问题。经济收益就导致人们害怕损失，这就形成了正反馈循环……直到每个人都能适应或直到政府插足。
比特币解决了什么问题
那么比特币一开始想解决什么问题？它真的解决了吗？广义上来说，我认为比特币想要创造“自由市场货币”，这个货币不会被政府控制和滥用。去中心化是防止政府废除该货币的一般途径。
我们都看到了，银行界权力中心化带来无限制的政府开支和政府对每个人经济生活的完全控制，导致每个人都受到威胁。人们试过用金钞充当货币，然而失败了，因为数字金钞也依赖于人们信任一个中心化的发行方。政府先是控制了金钞，然后废除了其与黄金挂钩，最终利用自己的权力通过“监管”废除了该货币，或对任何发行100%储备金钞的机构或小政府动用军事手段。
去中心化就是对抗经济帝国的经济游击战。这些科技让人们能够在政府的控制网之外合作、脱离政府对金、银、法币的操纵。它们让人们能够免受审查地交流、达成新的共识。
所以理想的加密货币的问题就是用来对抗监管俘虏和垄断滥用的理想的技术和社会模式。实体黄金和白银是电子通讯以前的世界中最理想的货币。在没有即时远距离交流技术之前，实体黄金、白银和信息移动的速度都一样。但是在信息时代，金钱的速度必须能匹配通讯速度。
金本位制度下的银行业尝试着用数字欠条取代实体黄金和白银，这些金条可以光速被转出。这就需要依靠第三方保护黄金的同时促成转账。然而，这种依靠却又无可避免可能带来制度性欺诈和监管俘虏。对于未和黄金挂钩、无法记账的法币，金钞和银钞就是一个特洛伊木马。
理想的加密货币应该有实体金币和银币的属性，同时能够以光速在人群中流通。其数量应该稀少、相对容易验证、很难伪造、有私密性，同时能够无限规模化。没有人应该能够阻止交易双方私下交易货币，就像两个人能够关上门用金币换面包一样。
比特币一开始确实是去中心的，任何人都可以和任何人交易，而几乎不需要支付费用。如果没人在账本上添加你有效的交易，你自己也可以在家里用电脑挖几小时矿。然而，这个没有持续下去。慢慢地，交易自主的费用达到了一定程度，所有的比特币交易必须通过少数矿池运营者的批准。缺少规模化意味着一般交易费用在2美元到14美元之间，确认时间也需要15分钟，甚至数小时。所以，其效率相当于电汇，而不是信用卡。这和取代实体货币还相距甚远。
正如金币和银币被监管俘虏一样，比特币也在快速被俘虏。金融机构逐渐控制了大多数供给，最终，大都数比特币支付将在链下进行。这些机构太大、太明显了，它们很难逃离政府监管，这就意味着，比特币和金银一样，都难逃监管。
慢慢地，100%比特币储备银行也会变成部分比特币储备，政府监管部分会宣布，无支持的比特币欠条可以作为法币，偿还比特币控制的债务。这可能需要一两代，但是比特币的最终的解决是会回到多代、政府支持、部分储备、中央银行的庞氏骗局。这种背景下，你买比特币还能赚钱吗？可以。你能利用比特币为大众创造多代经济自由？不行。
比特币，和黄金一样，不能无限分割。理论上，你当然可以把金子分割到一个原子那么小。但是交易一个原子的金子的费用比金子的价值更高。比特币可以被分割到小数点后第八位，但是假设人们愿意支付1%的交易费，它就必须价值500美元以上才能在链上交易。随着比特币价值提高，最终它会比金子更难分割。这样，每个想利用比特币支付的人就得利用中介借条。
增加比特币分割性的唯一方法是增加比特币区块链的规模，是按每秒交易能超过仅仅少数几笔。规模化增加能够减少链上交易的费用，从而增加货币的可分割性。这样就能导致因为网络、储存、和运营完整节点的计算费用带来的区块链中心化控制。
理想的加密货币能够以光速流通，同时还兼备隐私、可分割性以及交换实体铜币一样的交易费用。交易费用证明能被审查，而可分割性不足最终会导致政府控制。
理想的加密货币可能出现吗？可能会有，也可能不会。这样的解决方案能够实现大规模应用吗？政府会说它攻击个人和交易所而迫害它吗？很可能的。最终它能获胜吗？最终会的。但有一件事是明确的：我认为解决理想货币的问题比解决比特币的问题更容易得多。
原文/Original：
Today’s post attempts to answer the question of what properties should an ideal cryptocurrency have? These properties should be derived from the problem(s) that cryptocurrencies are attempting to solve. Over the past decade we have had the opportunity to observe a multitude of different technological attempts to solve the problem(s) of currency. One thing has become clear, the best technology cannot compete with the best network effect and better technology doesn’t automatically build network effect.
As a result of this, the first move advantage of Bitcoin and Ethereum have given them network effects that far outweigh the technical shortcomings of their relatively primitive, low performance, designs. These network effects are fueled by the self fulfilling pursuit of capital gains and liquidity. People adopt Bitcoin because it is growing in popularity and “everyone else is doing it”, not because it is “better” or even because it actually solves the problem(s) it set out to solve. Capital gains creates fear of missing out which creates a positive feedback loop… until everyone has adopted it or governments co-opt it.
What Problems does Bitcoin Solve?
So what problems did Bitcoin set out to solve and did it actually solve them? In the broadest sense, I believe Bitcoin set out to create “free market money” that cannot be controlled and abused by governments. Decentralization is the general approach to preventing governments from shutting it down.
We have all observed how centralization of power in banking leaves everyone at the mercy of unlimited government spending and complete government control over their economic lives. Attempts to use gold as money failed because digital gold notes depend upon trust in a centralized issuer. Governments first took over control of gold notes, then removed the gold backing, and finally utilize their power to shut down via “regulation” or military intervention any institution or small government that attempts to issue 100% reserve gold notes.
Decentralization is guerrilla economic warfare against economic empires. These technologies enable people to collaborate outside the government’s control grid and escape the government manipulation in gold, silver, and fiat money. They enable people to communicate without censorship and reach a new consensus.
So the question of the ideal crypocurrency is a question of the ideal technologies and social arrangements that defend against regulatory capture and monopolistic abuse. Physical gold and silver were the ideal currencies in a world without electronic communications. Without instantaneous long distance communication physical gold and silver and information could move at the same speed. In the information age, money must move at the speed of communication.
Banking under a gold standard is an attempt to replace physical gold and silver with digital IOUs which can be transferred at the speed of light. This introduced a dependency on a third party to both protect the gold and facilitate the transfers. This dependency created an irresistible opportunity for institutionalized fraud and regulatory capture. Gold and silver notes were a Trojan horse to unbacked and unaccountable fiat money.
An ideal cryptocurrency should have the properties of physical gold and silver coins circulating among the population at the speed of light. It should be rare, relatively easy to verify, hard to counterfeit, private, and infinitely scalable. No one should be able to stop two parties from transacting privately in the currency any more than two people trading gold for bread behind closed doors.
Bitcoin started out decentralized where anyone could transfer to anyone at almost no cost. If no one else would include your valid transaction in the ledger, then you could mine your own block on your home computer in hours. This didn’t last. Gradually the cost of transactional autonomy grew to the point where all Bitcoin transactions must be approved by a handful of mining pool operators. The lack of scalability means the typical transaction fee fluctuates between $2 and $14 and takes from 15 minutes to hours to confirm. This makes it on par with wire transfers and not credit cards. This is a far cry from a replacement for physical money.
Bitcoin is rapidly being captured in the same way that gold and silver coins were captured. Financial institutions are slowly gaining control of the majority of the supply and eventually the majority of Bitcoin payments will occur off chain. These institutions are too big and visible to escape government regulation which means Bitcoin will not escape regulation any better than gold or silver did.
Over time 100% reserve Bitcoin banks will turn into fractional reserve Bitcoin banks and government regulations will declare unbacked Bitcoin IOUs to be legal tender as payment of debts denominated in Bitcoin. It may take a generation or two, but the ultimate destination of Bitcoin is a reset to the multi-generational, government backed, fractional reserve, central bank ponzi scheme. Can you make money by buying Bitcoin under this scenario? Yes. Will you create multi-generational economic freedom for the masses by using Bitcoin? No.
Bitcoin, like gold, is not infinitely divisible. Sure you could, in theory, divide gold down to a single atom. But the cost of transacting in an atom of gold is greater than the value of gold itself. Bitcoin may be divisible down to 8 decimal places, but it can only be transacted on chain in quantities of $500 or more assuming people are willing to pay a 1% transfer fee. As Bitcoin grows in value it will end up being far less divisible than gold. This will force everyone interested in using bitcoin for payments to use an intermediary IOU.
The only way to increase the divisibility of Bitcoin is to increase the scale of the Bitcoin blockchain to enable more than a handful of transactions per second. This increase in scale would lower the cost to transact on chain and therefore increase the divisibility of the currency. It would also result in centralizing control of the blockchain due to the network, storage, and computational costs of operating a full node.
An Ideal cryptocurrency would be able to circulate at the speed of light with the privacy, divisibility, and transaction fee of trading in physical copper coins. Transaction fees are evidence of ability to censor and lack of divisibility which leads to government control.
Is the Ideal cryptocurrency possible? Maybe, maybe not. Would such a solution be widely adopted? Would it be persecuted by governments attacking individuals and exchanges? Likely. Would it win at the end of the day. Eventually. One thing is certain, I think we can get much closer to solving the problem of an ideal currency than we have with Bitcoin.
原文链接/Original URL:
